The Weighted Pipeline Forecast
How stage probability turns your open deals into a revenue forecast.
What it is
A running estimate of what your open pipeline is realistically worth, shown as a Weighted Forecast tile on your dashboard and as a full stage-by-stage breakdown on the Reports page.
The maths is deliberately simple and completely transparent:
Deal value × its stage's probability = that deal's contribution to the forecast.
A R100,000 deal sitting in a stage set to 60% contributes R60,000. Move it to a 80% stage and it contributes R80,000. Nothing is hidden, and there's no predictive model second-guessing you — the number reflects exactly the probabilities you chose.
Why it's worth having
Total open pipeline value flatters you. If you have R2,000,000 of open deals but most of them are cold enquiries that have never been quoted, that R2,000,000 is not money you can plan around. The weighted figure gives you a number closer to what you can actually expect, so you can decide whether to push harder this month rather than finding out at month end.
Both numbers are shown side by side on Reports for exactly that reason: the gap between total and weighted tells you how early-stage your pipeline is.
When to use it
- Monthly and quarterly planning — compare the weighted forecast against your sales goal.
- Deciding where to spend your time — the stage table shows which stage is holding the most value, which is usually where a nudge pays off most.
- Cash-flow conversations — a weighted number is a far more honest input to a cash-flow projection than raw pipeline total.
How to use it
- First, set realistic probabilities: Settings → Pipelines, open your pipeline, and adjust each stage. The defaults (10 / 30 / 60 / 80 / 100%) are a starting point, not a rule — set them from your own win history if you have it.
- Look at the Weighted Forecast tile on your dashboard for the headline figure.
- Go to Reports for the breakdown: every stage, how many deals sit there, its probability, its open value, and its weighted contribution.
- If you run more than one pipeline, the Reports table adds a Pipeline column so the two never get mixed up.
Things worth knowing
- Only open deals count. Won and Lost deals are already decided, so they're excluded — the forecast is about what's still in play.
- Currencies are never mixed. If you have deals in rand and dollars, you'll see `ZAR 120,000 + USD 8,000`, not a single misleading total. The same rule applies everywhere money is totalled in Allsorts CRM.
- It updates instantly. Change a stage probability, or drag a deal to a different stage, and the forecast reflects it on the next page load. Nothing to recalculate or schedule.
- The Deals CSV export includes it too — each deal's stage probability and weighted value are columns in the file.